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Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 78(2), 2008, pp. 188-194
Copyright © 2008 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Right arrow Schistosomiasis

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis Transmission in China

Xiao-Nong Zhou*, Guo-Jing Yang, Kun Yang, Xian-Hong Wang, Qing-Biao Hong, Le-Ping Sun, John B. Malone, Thomas K. Kristensen, N. Robert Bergquist, AND Jürg Utzinger
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; Department of Schistosomiasis Control, Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi, People’s Republic of China; School for Environmental Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Australia; Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Skip Bertman Drive, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana; DBL – Institute for Health Research and Development, University of Copenhagen, Charlottenlund, Denmark; Ingerod 407, Brastad, Sweden; Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland

Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4°C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8°C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0°C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9°C in 2030 and 1.6°C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km2 by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.

Received April 21, 2007. Accepted for publication July 2, 2007.

Acknowledgments: We thank our colleagues from the National Institute of Parasitic Diseases and the Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases for help with the field work, laboratory investigations, and statistical analyses.

This project was supported by the Chinese National Science Foundation (project nos. 300070684 and 30590373), the UNICEF/UNDP/ World Bank/WHO/Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR; grant no. 970990), and the Ministry of Science and Technology (2003DIA6N009). At the time of manuscript preparation, G. J. Yang was a recipient of a TDR grant (A10775). J. Utzinger acknowledges financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (project no. PPOOB-102883).

* Address correspondence to Xiao-Nong Zhou, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 207 Rui Jin Er Road, Shanghai 200025, People’s Republic of China. E-mail: ipdzhouxn{at}sh163.net

Authors’ addresses: Xiao-Nong Zhou, Kun Yang, and Xian-Hong Wang, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200025, Peoples Republic ’ of China. Guo-Jing Yang, Kun Yang, Qing-Biao Hong, and Le-Ping Sun, Department of Schistosomiasis Control, Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi 214064, People’s Republic of China. Guo-Jing Yang, School for Environmental Research, Charles Darwin University, Ellengowan Drive, 0909, Darwin, Australia. John B. Malone, Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Skip Bertman Drive, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803. Thomas K. Kristensen, DBL–Institute for Health Research and Development, University of Copenhagen, Jaegersborg Allé 1D, DK–2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. N. Robert Bergquist, Ingerod 407, 454 94 Brastad, Sweden. Jürg Utzinger, Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, PO Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland.

Reprint requests: Xiao-Nong Zhou, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 207 Rui Jin Er Road, Shanghai 200025, People’s Republic of China. Telephone: +86 21 6473–8058, Fax: +86 21 6433–2670, E-mail: ipdzhouxn{at}sh163.net.




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