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ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTORS OF THE SEASONALITY OF MALARIA TRANSMISSION IN AFRICA: THE CHALLENGE

A description of malaria seasonality is important for planning and optimizing malaria control in both time and space, but adequate malariologic data are not available for many disease-endemic areas. We analyzed the relationship between seasonality in the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR) and environmental factors in sites across sub-Saharan Africa with the objective of predicting seasonality from environmental data. The degree of EIR seasonality in each site was quantified using an index previously used for rainfall. The results showed that seasonality of rainfall, minimum temperature, and irrigation are important determinants of seasonality in EIR. Model fit was poor in areas characterized by two rainfall peaks and by irrigation activities. Two rainfall peaks probably dampen seasonality and irrigation creates perennial breeding habitats for vectors independent of rainfall. This complex interplay between the seasonal dynamics of environmental determinants and malaria pose a great challenge and highlights the need for improved models of malaria seasonality.

Received June 22, 2006. Accepted for publication August 18, 2006.

Acknowledgments: We thank Dr. Brian Sharp and Dr. Immo Kleinschmidt for their comments on earlier draft of the manuscript. This work is part of the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa (MARA) collaboration between the Malaria Research Lead Programme at the Medical Research Council in South Africa and the Swiss Tropical Institute in Basel Switzerland.

Financial support: This work was supported by the Rudolf Geigy Stiftung zu Gunsten des Schweizerischen Tropeninstituts.

^* Address correspondence to Musawenkosi L. H. Mabaso, Malaria Research Lead Programme, Medical Research Council, PO Box 70380, Overport, Durban, South Africa, E-mail: mabasom{at}mrc.ac.za

Authors’ addresses: Musawenkosi L. H. Mabaso and Marlies Craig, Malaria Research Lead Programme, Medical Research Council, PO Box 70380, Overport, Durban, South Africa, Telephone: 27-31-203-4700, Fax: 27-31-203-4704, E-mails: mabasom{at}mrc.ac.za and mcraig{at}mrc.ac.za. Amanda Ross and Thomas Smith, Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, Socinstrasse 57, PO Box CH-4002, Basel, Switzerland, Telephone: 41-61-284-8273, Fax: 41-284- 8105, E-mails: Amanda.Ross{at}unibas.ch and Thomas-A.Smith{at}unibas.ch.

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