AJTMH Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 71(5), 2004, pp. 664-674
Copyright © 2004 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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TRIGGER EVENTS: ENVIROCLIMATIC COUPLING OF EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER OUTBREAKS

JORGE E. PINZON, JAMES M. WILSON, COMPTON J. TUCKER, RAY ARTHUR, PETER B. JAHRLING, AND PIERRE FORMENTY
Biospheric Sciences Branch, Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Science Systems & Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland; Global Alert and Response Team, Department of Communicable Diseases Surveillance and Response, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Disease, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland

We use spatially continuous satellite data as a correlate of precipitation within tropical Africa and show that the majority of documented Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks were closely associated with sharply drier conditions at the end of the rainy season. We propose that these trigger events may enhance transmission of Ebola virus from its cryptic reservoir to humans. These findings suggest specific directions to help understand the sylvatic cycle of the virus and may provide early warning tools to detect possible future outbreaks of this enigmatic disease.

Received February 9, 2004. Accepted for publication April 24, 2004.

Acknowledgments: We thank Brian Rothman (University of Cincinnati College of Medicine), Neal Woolen (United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases), David Heymann, Guenael Rodier (World Health Organization Communicable Diseases Cluster), Richard Hatchett (United States Department of Health and Human Services), and Dr. Robert Vanessea for their valuable assistance.

Financial support: The appointments of James M. Wilson to the World Health Organization Ebola Tai Forest Project and the NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center were supported jointly by the Department of Communicable Diseases Surveillance and Response, the World Health Organization, and the Office of Applications, NASA.

Authors’ addresses: Jorge E. Pinzon, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics, Code 923, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 and Science Systems & Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD 20706, Telephone: 301-614-6685, Fax: 301-614-6015, E-mail: pinzon{at}negev.gsfc.nasa.gov. James M. Wilson, Global Alert and Response Team, Department of Communicable Diseases Surveillance and Response, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, E-mail: wilson{at}isis.imac.georgetown.edu. Compton J. Tucker, Sciences Branch, Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics, Code 923, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, E-mail: compton{at}kratmos.gsfc.nasa.gov. Ray Arthur and Pierre Formenty, Global Alert and Response Team, Department of Communicable Diseases Surveillance and Response, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, E-mails: rca8{at}cdc.gov and formenty{at}who.int. Peter B. Jahlring, U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Disease, Fort Detrick, Frederick, MD 21702-5011, E-mail: Peter.Jahring{at}det.amedd.army.mil.

Reprint requests: Jorge E. Pinzon, Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics, Code 923, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, Telephone: 301-614-6685, Fax: 301-614-6015, E-mail: pinzon{at}negev.gsfc.nasa.gov.




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