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PREDICTING TRIATOMA DIMIDIATA ABUNDANCE AND INFECTION RATE: A RISK MAP FOR NATURAL TRANSMISSION OF CHAGAS DISEASE IN THE YUCATÁN PENINSULA OF MEXICO

Chagas disease, a major public health problem in Latin America, is caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi and transmitted by hematophageous insects from the Triatominae subfamily. Control of this disease is based on domestic vector control with insecticides and improvements in housing. As with other vector-borne diseases, the identification of areas of high risk of disease transmission is a major prerequisite for the planning and implementation of cost-effective control programs. In this study, we explored the relationship between Triatoma dimidiata geographic distribution and bioclimatic factors in the Yucatán peninsula in Mexico, using geographic information systems, and developed predictive models of T. dimidiata domestic abundance and of its infection rates by T. cruzi. These predictions were then used to build the first natural transmission risk map for Chagas disease in the Yucatán peninsula, a tool that should prove very valuable for the implementation of effective vector control programs in the region.

Received October 29, 2003. Accepted for publication December 26, 2003.

Acknowledgments: We thank R. Ojeda-Baranda and V. Suarez-Solis for providing the geographic location of clinical cases, and J. Brownstein and J.A. Farfán-Ale for helpful discussions and comments on an earlier version of this work.

Financial support: This work was supported by grant no. 20020404 from SISIERRA/CONACYT to Eric Dumonteil.

Authors’ addresses: Eric Dumonteil, Laboratorio de Parasitología, Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Ave. Itzaes #490 x 59, 97000 Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico, Telephone: 52-999-924-5910, Fax: 52-999-923-6120, E-mail: oliver{at}tunku.uady.mx. Sébastien Gourbière, Laboratoire de Théorie des Systèmes, Université de Perpignan, 52, Avenue de Villeneuve, 66860 Perpignan Cedex, France, Telephone and Fax: 33-4-68-66-17-60.

Reprint requests: Eric Dumonteil, Laboratorio de Parasitología, Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Ave. Itzaes #490 x 59, 97000, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico.

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