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Assessment of Malaria Eradication Costs and Benefits

Analysis of the prospective costs and benefits of alternative programs can be a useful tool in helping decision-makers arrive at rational decisions. It is essential, however, that comparison of the costs (or benefits) of alternative programs with differently phased expenditure (or receipt) flows make use of discounting for present value in order to convert the different flows to a common base. Failure to follow this practice in previous comparisons of malaria control and eradication programs has led to erroneous conclusions about their relative cost. On the benefit side, the increased output made possible by the reduction in morbidity is offset to a considerable extent by the acceleration of the rate of population growth and the rise in the dependency ratio brought about by the decline in mortality and the rise in fertility. The economic consequences of these demographic developments undercut the economic argument for malaria eradication and lead to the conclusion that the case for such programs should be based primarily on humanitarian and ethical considerations.

^* The views expressed by the author are his own, and are not intended to express official policy of the Agency for International Development.